JWS Research Managing Director John Scales explains TPP, preference flows and the effect of minor party votes in this morning’s Australian Financial Review.
As the Coalition loses voters to minor parties who direct preferences elsewhere, it must keep growing its primary vote. This is very hard.
The first task in any election campaign is to assess what constitutes a win: the magic number that campaign staff on both sides listen for as the election results roll in. In July 2016, for the Coalition, that number was 76.
The Coalition retained government by claiming 76 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, while Labor won 69 seats and minor parties and independents five seats. After Australian Electoral Commission redistributions and byelections, the government now holds 73 seats in a 151-seat house, with Labor at 72 seats, minor parties and independents claiming the remaining six seats in the House.