Managing Director, John Scales, explains in The Australian Financial Review that if the race is as close as polls suggest, there’s a possibility that the Coalition could eke out an unexpected victory on Saturday.
Even without a clear majority, Labor should easily be able to form minority government with the support of any number of lower house independents and minor party members. Even a 50-50 TPP result and no net seat gain sees Bill Shorten in the Lodge as Prime Minister.
As the current evidence stands, a Labor government is the simplest and most likely outcome this Saturday.
The big problem for the Coalition is that published polls have its primary vote lead on Labor at just two to three points, meaning that if recent history repeats this Saturday, Labor will easily get to the magic 50-point TPP result and victory. This is where the United Australia Party-Coalition preference deal has the potential to be a game-changer.
So, this is where things start to get interesting. If on election night, we see the Coalition with a three-point or more primary vote buffer, UAP’s primary vote plausibly doubles to say 6 per cent, and the UAP preference deal lifts preference flows to the Coalition, it’ll be a much more competitive race than it appears.